imsanjoykb/Recession-Indicator-Research

This paper studies the infromation content of the yield curve as recession indicator in the Eurozone. This paper employs a dataset extending from 1970 to 2017 to create an aggregated syntheic yield curve for 3-month interest rates, 10-year interest rates and rate of GDP growth. This paper is the first to utilise Support Vector Machine for forecasting of recessions in the Eurozone.

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Experimental

This research explores how the Eurozone yield curve can predict recessions, specifically for economists, financial analysts, and policymakers. It takes historical data on 3-month and 10-year interest rates and GDP growth to build models, producing forecasts and performance visuals for recession indicators. The aim is to help assess future economic downturns.

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Use this if you are a Eurozone economist or financial analyst interested in understanding the effectiveness of the yield curve as a recession predictor using historical data.

Not ideal if you need real-time, highly accurate, or production-ready recession forecasting models, as this is a research paper with acknowledged data and model limitations.

Eurozone-economics recession-forecasting yield-curve-analysis economic-indicators financial-modeling
Stale 6m No Package No Dependents
Maintenance 0 / 25
Adoption 4 / 25
Maturity 16 / 25
Community 8 / 25

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8

Forks

1

Language

Jupyter Notebook

License

MIT

Last pushed

Aug 10, 2021

Commits (30d)

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